MUSEUMS & SOCIETY 2034: TRENDS AND POTENTIAL FUTURES

Prepared by Reach Advisors for the Center for the Future of Museums, an initiative of the American Association of Museums

“The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present.” – Paul Saffo, futurist

INTRODUCTION

Museums are often viewed as conservators of the past, but some have always been in the business of the future—even going so far as to enshrine it in their mission statements

But what will the future look like? How much can we really anticipate about the world of 2034?

To address those questions, Reach Advisors pored over nearly a thousand articles, data sets, interviews and discussion forums to identify the trends that are most likely to change U.S. society and museums during the next 25 years. Our quarry was the emerging structural changes that are highly likely to reshape society and highly likely to affect museums.

Of course, there will be other trends that impact the future of museums. But some of these trends might not be apparent yet; others may have a huge impact on some museums but not a broad cross-section of the field; others might have profound impacts on museums if they come to pass, but the likelihood of that happening is low. This report focuses on demographic trends, changes in the geopolitical and economic landscape, shifts in technology and communications, and the rise of new cultural expectations.

To assess how each of these trends might shape the future, we start by stepping back 25 years to 1984, to identify some of the emerging structural shifts that shape what we see today. With the full benefit of hindsight, it becomes clearer which of today’s emerging trends are most likely to shape the world of 2034.  

IV. myCULTURE

A. A creative renaissance

Along with increased computing power and the decreasing costs of technology came the advent of the personal computer as a recording or animation studio, movie-editing suite and publishing house. That was just the beginning. With increased digital connectivity came the advent of much more effective town squares and marketplaces, providing creative participants places to access better tools and information, and enabling creative producers to share and sell their output more efficiently.

Based on Reach Advisors’ national survey work with young adults on issues outside of the museum field, we are seeing the emergence of a cultural shift that may prove to be a full-blown creative renaissance. The result will be a generation of young adults with more extensive creative pursuits than any other recent generation. This generation grew up with a broad palette of digital tools and creative resources; as a result, they are demonstrating an extraordinarily high level of creative output and creative consumption.

What this means for society: We project that significant new economic value will be produced by these pursuits, thanks to a far bigger base of creative producers, a wider range of creative output (including forms that we can’t even envision today) and significantly better distribution opportunities for their creative product — matched by a broader base of creative consumption. Already, marketplaces such as Etsy are supplanting the need for artisans to travel to sell their handmade works, and creating an audience of consumers who are used to looking for distant artisans before they turn to mainstream retailers. 

What this means for museums: Museums have traditionally served as incubators and repositories of creative expression. While many of the trends discussed in this report present significant threats to museums, this is one shift that will allow museums to flourish as facilitators of the emerging creative renaissance.

In 2034: As incubators of creative expression, museums flourish as facilitators of the ongoing creative renaissance. They play a vital role in nurturing, documenting, organizing, interpreting and making accessible the new realm of creative output. Museums play an even greater role as economic engines in their communities, helping harness the value generated by the emerging wave of creative-driven commerce and exchange. They are repositories of knowledge about traditional craft, sources of inspiration for new designs and processes, and through, their collections and exhibitions, validators of new artists and new art forms.

B. Shifting conceptions of narrative

For most adults over the age of 30, “narrative” is a passive experience. To be sure, there have been models of self-directed narrative in a wide variety of media, from interactive Star Trek games on mainframe computers in the 1970s to fanzines, mix-tapes, the Choose Your Own Adventure book series, even The Matrix movies, but these were mainly consumed by small groups of connoisseurs. For Americans under 30, there’s an emerging structural shift in which consumers increasingly drive narrative.  

A key factor has been the expansion of video gaming, now approaching almost universal consumption by American teens. And gaming is now more likely to be about the user as protagonist, driving the narrative. Some games are simply structured that way, while others enable modding (modifications of the software or hardware for unintended purposes driven by the user), and on the edge lies Machinima, virtual gaming worlds where players collaborate in person or online to produce and record their own narratives.

Moving one step younger, Scholastic has been shifting many of its new series of books (e.g., The 39 Clues for children ages 6–14) in the direction of enabling the reader to serve as the protagonist through websites and games that extend the experience with readers driving their experiences with the book series.

Once again, we’re seeing an emerging structural shift where technology is fundamentally enabling and wiring expectations differently, particularly among younger audiences, this time when it comes to the concept of narrative.

What this means for society: One of the fundamental concerns is how the core driver behind this shift, video gaming, affects the development of children and young adults. On one hand, there is an uncannily strong correlation (although not necessarily causation) between the increase in video gaming and the decrease in school test score performance of boys over the past 15 years. On the other hand, video games have become increasingly complex, with engaged role-playing, complicated problem-solving and components that players can design themselves. It’s likely that this shift in narrative structure and expectations will drive a lot of how the next generation of adults expects to engage in the world.

What this means for museums: Over time, museum audiences are likely to expect to be part of the narrative experience at museums. While the overall story might not change, how it is presented may change to allow visitors to take on a role as a protagonist themselves. While this is a dramatic departure from how some museums structure narrative, it provides an opportunity to create deeper, more immersive experiences for visitors. For a glimpse of the future, an intriguing example of the emerging you-as-the-protagonist concept can already been seen at Conner Prairie Living History Museum’s “Follow the North Star” program, where participants play the role of a fugitive slave on the Underground Railroad over the course of a mile of rough terrain at night, constantly confronted by friend or foe. We project this kind of immersive, interactive programming will be more of the norm than the exception as the generation coming of age now has brings its own children to museums.

In 2034: While some educators still decry the impact of video gaming on academic development, museums provide unique opportunities for today’s youth to exercise their gaming skills and satisfy their expectations for immersive narrative. This increases their engagement with museums but also with the community and the world, providing levels of social and global awareness they might not otherwise absorb while sitting in front of a screen.

C. Respite and retreat

During Reach Advisors’ interviews with technology visionaries across the country, it became evident to us that the U.S. will become even more technology-laden and hectic in the future. Just one example: Many of the technology visionaries projected for us that core telecommunications technologies are coming to the point where cell phones will be small enough to fit inside our ear canals like a hearing aid, with near-perfect voice recognition that will negate the need for a keyboard. When this comes to pass, we will be living in a much noisier world than 1984 or even 2008.

What this means for society: While technological progress has brought much value to society, one byproduct of these emergent structural shifts in communication technologies is almost certainly going to be a world with fewer and fewer places where the public can find respite and retreat.

What this means for museums: At the same time, we’re also seeing increasing backlash to the proliferation of technology in our research for museums and among the general public. Instead, our consumer research is finding indications of a longing for a retreat, particularly among women over 50 years old, a sentiment that we expect to expand as technology advances. The challenge will be the balancing act of positioning museums as exciting and engaging places to go, while providing a special spot to disengage from the day-to-day.

In 2034: In an increasingly atomized and digitized world, people still have a core desire for human engagement and authenticity. Museums will be oases of the real in an increasingly virtual world. Along with the outdoors and places of worship, museums represent the best opportunities for getting away from it all.