MUSEUMS & SOCIETY 2034: TRENDS AND POTENTIAL FUTURES

I. THE CHANGING FACE OF AMERICA

In 1984, signs of dramatic demographic and socioeconomic shifts in American society were already apparent. For the first three-quarters of the 20th century, minorities constituted 10–13% of the American population. By the early 1980s, thanks to changes in immigration laws and enforcement policies, the minority population had climbed to 20%. (Today, minorities represent 34% of the population.) At about the same time, the youngest of the Baby Boomers reached adulthood and participation rates in postsecondary education rose sharply. Each of these demographic trends will continue to shape American society by 2034.

A. An aging population

As the Baby Boomers age, their sheer numbers tell a story of future change in U.S. society. Today, 1 in 8 Americans are older than 65. In 2034, the ratio will jump to 1 in 5. This is a generation that has reshaped lifestyles and the U.S. consumer landscape at every stage of life. The upcoming stage will be no exception.

What this means for society: A 50% jump in the post-retirement population will require greater focus on healthcare and other services for the aging and a subsequent strain on the existing services. How will the government pay for unfunded entitle­ments such as Social Security and Medicare? Already, those unfunded commitments exceed the national debt, with more pressure to come on everything else that depends on federal funding. Another big unknown is how the Baby Boomers will spend their time in the traditional post-retirement years. Surveys consistently show that Boomers are far more interested than their parents in continuing some form of work after retirement—and many will do so out of necessity.

What this means for museums: How will the Baby Boom engage with museums in retirement? Can museums position themselves as employers of choice for post-career bridge jobs? Perhaps one of the most important things to consider is how museums can reinvent the role of the post-retirement volunteer, simply because this is a generation that has rarely followed in lock-step with the preceding generations. (Actually, it rebelled against them.) The Boomers constitute a large talent pool working its way towards the golden years of volunteerism, at least among those who can afford to do that.

In 2034:Exhibit labels have bigger print and museums are easier to navigate with a walker or wheelchair. Universal design is a given in even the smallest museums. Museums are at the forefront of the “brain exercise” movement, helping to maintain the cognitive powers of an older population. Museums play an important role in addressing the increased demand for all services for the aging and are an increasingly desired partner for existing senior service organizations, which are under pressure to serve a larger and more active senior population. And just as 2008 witnessed a presidential campaign that reinvented civic involvement for a new generation of young adults, museums will take the lead in reshaping civic involvement for a new generation of aging citizens.

B. Multi-ethnic America

One of the most striking changes in the composition of America since 1984 has been the dramatic expansion of the minority population. For most of the prior century, just 1 in 10 Americans was a minority, accelerating rapidly to 1 in 5 Americans in the early 1980s to 1 in 3 Americans today.

Looking ahead a quarter century, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that the U.S. population will reach the 400 million mark, up from 300 million today. While the population will grow at a healthy clip, the growth rate of the Caucasian population is projected to grow only 4% by 2034—not 4% annually, but 4% in total. Virtually zero growth.

Instead, almost all of America’s population growth will come from minority populations. By 2034, minorities are likely to comprise just under half of the population. Four states in America have already become majority minority, with five more states projected to reach that level in the next decade.

Among America’s children, the majority will be minority within 15 years. After analyzing survey responses from 30,000 core museum visitors, Reach Advisors has identified a group that we call “Museum Advocates.” Museums are not just places that they visit on occasion, but are especially important places in their lives where they truly enjoy spending their leisure time. And what distinguishes Museum Advocates from other people? Nearly all have a distinct memory of a specific, seminal museum experience, usually between the ages of 5 and 9. The number of Caucasian 7-year-olds is projected to decline by 4% over the next 25 years. The number of blacks of the same age is projected to increase by 5%, Asians by 49%, mixed race children by 72% and Hispanics by 73%.

What this means for society: The obvious answer is that America will look very different in 2034 than it does today. Communities will need new and better ways to promote integration and develop understanding across cultures. For many parts of the country, this is more than a mere “cultural sensitivity” issue—it is socially and economically vital to sustain healthy communities given the dramatic shift in racial composition. What else does this mean? Just as 2008 saw a major expansion of African-Americans political power, by 2034 the U.S. Congress and other elected bodies across much of the country will be much more Hispanic.

What this means for museums: The fundamental challenge is that while the population is already one-third minority, heading towards majority minority, today only 9% of the core visitors to museums are minorities and approximately 20% of museum employees are minorities. If museums want to remain relevant to their communities, the museum audience will have to look dramatically different as well, particularly in the western and southern U.S. and in most of the larger cities across the country. If 5 to 9 is the critical age for converting children into lifelong museum-goers and advocates, how can museums attract minority children in this age range whose support they want in 2034? And are museums cultivating relationships with minorities serving as community organizers, political staffers, on local school boards (now a targeted entry point by some of the more savvy Hispanic political organizations? It’s a safe bet that a number of those individuals will be voting on local, state and federal museum funding 25 years from now.

In 2034: More museums will be places of cultural exchange in their communities; they won’t have any other choice. Museums will be primary sites for civic dialogues about community interests and the policies that affect communities. They will be one of the most powerful agents in helping all children understand the future and ensuring they are prepared to take leadership roles in various sectors.

C. A new gender gap

Circa 1984, 55% of girls who completed high school enrolled in college. Today, almost 70% who complete high school enroll in college. Over that time, the trajectory of educational attainment has remained relatively stable for men while arcing higher for women. As a result, women now outnumber men on most college campuses by a 60:40 ratio. The most stunning change is in the attainment of professional and doctoral degrees. When looking at the current holders of those degrees, men outnumber women by a 2:1 ratio. But the majority of those now graduating with professional and doctoral degrees are women.

When it comes to income, the old gender gap persists. As of 2007, women who work full time earn only 79% of their male counterparts, but this gap is closing rapidly for well-educated women. For example, the number of women earning over $50,000 more than their spouses has doubled in the past ten years, and in most major U.S. metropolitan areas that draw an influx of college-educated employees, women in their 20s now earn 100% to 120% of what men of the same age earn.

We see no signs of this trend letting up over the next decade or two. Current national test scores show girls starting to pull away from the boys academically as early as the fourth grade, starting down a long-term path towards higher educational attainment.

What this means for society: One implication of this ongoing shift is that the average age at which women marry and have children will likely continue to increase, at least among the women who earn college degrees. If that trend continues—carrying the next generation of mothers even further into careers where they are likely to outearn their male partners—then we also anticipate a dramatic shift in gender role expectations. This may prove to be one of the biggest social challenges in America over the next 25 years as this generation of women moves through college into the workforce and family life.

What this means for museums: Given that museums traditionally attract college-educated audiences, the impact of this change may be felt in a number of ways. When women hold the lead in educational attainment, will they constitute the majority of visitors? In many cities across the country, the mothers visiting with young children will be even more likely to be in their 30s and 40s, rather than their 20s—how will this affect museum programming? With more couples working full time and splitting childcare duties, who will have the time and inclination to become museum volunteers?

In 2034: Museums have developed many new strategies to attract both men and women as visitors. With educational attainment becoming a more visible tool of social mobility than ever, museums provide more opportunities than ever for girls (and boys) from less-educated families to gain exposure to topics that drive academic interest and carry them to college. As the percentage of two-income parents continues to increase, museums meet the demand for a more robust network of community support for the young children of mid-career parents. With more women serving as primary breadwinners, museums provide convenient, welcoming venues where families have rich experiences during their increasingly scarce time together. As important players in the formal and informal education system, museums work hard to meet the rising expectations that highly educated moms have for their children.

© 2008, 2009 American Association of Museums
This is part of a larger report available for download at http://aam-us.org/upload/museumssociety2034.pdf.