I have to admit, when we started digging into our research for this white paper, I did not think globalization was going to be one of “the big three” themes we would focus on. I just could not see how BRIC countries would have that much effect on most museums. Surely there were other things, like educational trends, that would have a bigger impact.
Until we started digging into energy. And I applied what I was learning to the museum that is nearest and dearest to my heart: Brookside Museum in Ballston Spa, NY (where I was Executive Director for five years, my first “real job” out of graduate school). Looking five years, ten years, then twenty-five years into the future, what will an energy crisis, and escalating energy prices mean to Brookside?
It may not be pretty. Brookside is known as a regional destination for school field trips. Some children travel 90 minutes (each way!) to attend programs like “Native New York.” Would those far-flung schools (or even those closer to home) continue to send their children on field trips to Brookside?
Brookside is also in an old, rambling, wood-framed hotel building. It costs a fortune simply to heat a portion of it through the winter (I used to charge trustees $20 each to turn up the heat during board meetings in winter). Will Brookside have to shift to seasonal hours? What will that mean?
Then I thought about the effects on other museums. Conservation standards. Will museums have to make some difficult decisions about the objects in their care? Museums that rely heavily on the gate, but are located in rural areas. Will people travel to those museums? What happens if they won’t?
Energy prices are a bit lower than their peak last summer. Yet many (though not all) energy analysts say the blip is now, largely due to the global recession, and that the energy prices we saw last summer are our future (if not higher prices – see World Energy Outlook, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2008SUM.pdf for one of the more conservative estimates; see Life After the Oil Crash for a scare-your-pants-off view, http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/).
Of course, ramping up of alternative energy sources may change everything. Or it may not.
The energy trend alone was enough to convince me that, for a lot of museum, major changes were ahead in terms of attendance and conservation. Changes we need to start planning for now.
And then, through the fall, the economy took a major nose-dive. We are now seeing increasing unrest in more parts of the world due to wage inequality and commodity prices (strikes in Great Britain, major protests in Greece, and a real fear of riots and major unrest in China).
How long before the anger and frustration in the US leads to even more dramatic political shifts and change?
What will that mean for museums, who seek to serve the public, but who are often perceived to be for the affluent? Can museums play a critical role in stimulating economic growth? A role that is widely perceived, and felt? Perhaps museums can. . . if they are innovative and open to change.
I am now a total convert. Globalization touches museums of all types, from tiny historical societies (like Brookside) to large museums who may be courting new major donors from Brazil or India (while also worried about the conditions of the fragile textile collection).
Is this a good or bad thing? I don’t think it is either . . . and it is both. Museums that do nothing will suffer, yet museums that look upon this as an opportunity can also thrive in our smaller, flatter world.
On technological change and the future of information:
I remember the day when I realized that Facebook had replaced the newspaper for young adults.
It was the day that I checked my account and saw a piece of national news (courtesy of Scott) and some museum-industry news (Jennifer). There also was some hometown news (Jeff), and my sister posted she was eating lunch at her desk (a turkey sandwich).
Additionally, it was the second time that week alone that I first heard a piece of major news via news stories posted by friends. Not via television, a news website, or the paper.
And it hit me. I didn’t need the Boston Globe anymore. Or the White County News. My friends were editing all the news I needed. No, not editing. Curating.
We all know the newspaper industry is hemorrhaging. Nearly every week another major paper stops printing (though does not mean necessarily stop operating, as some are keeping online versions going).
Even my Boston Globe has a murky future, at best. And while I still get the paper version of that newspaper, I recently cancelled my Wall Street Journal hard copy in favor of a subscription via my Kindle.
Technology has made this all possible, and it has turned the news industry, in particular, upside-down. News outlets are struggling to find ways to pay the bills when consumers expect their news to be free and online.
Meanwhile, the media world is continuing to fragment, and websites like Facebook are the places where information is pulled back together. I can pull in twitter feeds and RSS (real simple syndication) feeds into only one or two spots, creating my own, custom, news pages. I could stop getting the Boston Globe and not really feel I am missing much, if anything.
This means change for museums. Museums have traditionally used newspapers and, to a lesser degree, magazines, to promote their exhibits and programs. Now that model is rapidly disappearing as the economics of those industries fail.
Yet this also presents a tremendous opportunity for museums. I can fan all the museums I want on Facebook, and am automatically informed of all their programming. And see if any of my friends are going (thus making my own visit more likely). I can subscribe to the news feeds, blogs, and twitter feeds of museums as well, and actually become more informed directly from the museum itself on what is going on than reading an (edited) version via the paper. And the best thing? Museums actually have better control of the message and the distribution is free.
Peering 25 years in the future, there will be even more change in how we distribute information, and how our visitors learn about our programs and events. While we may not know exactly how that will take shape, we can say that Facebook is paving the way, while paper copies of newspapers will likely go the way of the dinosaurs.
But the innovative exhibits and programming that will make it worth sharing with my friends on Facebook? Well, that is up to the museum.