Research Roundup
Double issue (April 20-May 11, 2009)


Tools for the future:
  • All good forecasting begins with a solid grounding in what we know about the here and now. For cultural organizations (including museums), one of the best tools for collecting data about current operations and finances is the Cultural Data Project administered by the Pew Charitable Trusts. What began as an experiment in Pennsylvania has now spread to three additional states—with more on the way. (By the end of 2009, about a third of all U.S. museums will be in states where the CDP is active). The CDP has launched a new website to provide general information about the project to grantmakers, researchers, advocates, arts and cultural organizations and anyone who wants to learn more. The site links to research reports utilizing CDP data, quotes and testimonials from CDP users and advocates, and samples of the data collection process. The American Association of Museums is already working with other organizations to include museums from all parts of the country in this project.
  • Wikinomics: “Exploring How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything.”
  • A sampler of “wild cards” from the World Future Society. A wild card is “an unexpected event that would have enormous consequences if it actually occurred”; see also Black Swan. Futurists use wild card scenarios to prepare for the unexpected and to focus attention on trends with unpredictable but undeniable impact. Some of the wild cards considered here include “a worldwide backlash against fundamentalist religions,” “widespread illness and death from tainted food (either accidental or deliberate),” and “a disruptive new business model on the scale of the Web when it emerged in the mid-1990s.”

The near future:

  • Top 10 Travel Technology Trends for 2009. Aimed at the travel industry (including the dying breed of travel agents), but some of the trends will also affect museums as travel destinations—such as Trend #2: “The Entire Trip Experience Will Be ‘Informationized’.”
  •  Expect less foundation grant-making in 2009. “According to a new research advisory from the Foundation Center, nearly two-thirds of foundations expect to reduce the number or the size of grants they award in 2009. Based on a recent survey of more than 1,200 U.S. foundations, the advisory … found that more than half of respondents are reacting to the economic crisis by engaging in more non-grantmaking activities, with two-thirds of those foundations planning to pursue collaborations and partnerships in 2009 and about a third indicating they will initiate more convenings.” Summary from the Philanthropy News Digest. The full report, Foundations Address the Impact of the Economic Crisis, is available from the Foundation Center.
  •  Popular Mechanics has a list of “10 Future-Proof Jobs You Can Get Right Now.” The list is roughly split between “green economy” jobs (like Zero-Energy Home Architect and Battery Engineer) and careers tied to the latest media (like 3D Sports Tech and Independent Video-Game Designer)—plus our favorite, Digital Detective. 
  • Futurist Ray Kurzweil explains the “Coming Singularity” on BigThink. According to Kurzweil, the Singularity is defined by an acceleration of technological change leading to a breakthrough in self-aware artificial intelligence, launching “an era in which our intelligence will become increasingly nonbiological and trillions of times more powerful than it is today—the dawning of a new civilization that will enable us to transcend our biological limitations and amplify our creativity”. His critics (such as cyberpunk pioneer Bruce Sterling) have derided the idea as “an end-of-history notion [that is already] showing its age.”  
Social trends, etc.:
  • Researchers now see a downward trend in high school volunteering. According to the latest fact sheet from CIRCLE (the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University), “Fewer high school age (16-18) Americans stepped up to volunteer their time over the past two years. Traditionally, teenagers have volunteered at slightly higher rates than other age groups, but in 2007 people 25 or older were more likely to volunteer than were those 16 to 18.  Overall trends showed a six percentage point decline in volunteering among 16-to-18 year-olds since the rate peaked in 2005 at 33 percent. Meanwhile, volunteer rates for the population aged 19-to-25 (18 percent) and 25 years and older (28 percent) both changed very little (2 percentage points or less) since 2002.” For more details, visit here.
  • Will universities be irrelevant in 2020? Yes, according to BYU professor David Wiley—and they will largely be replaced by Google and Facebook (or their successors), plus “free online access to university lectures, after-hours institutions such as the University of Phoenix, and virtual institutions.” See a newspaper report on his comments in the Deseret News. Courtesy of Stephen’s Web. 
  • In April, the Environmental Defense Fund issued a new report on Reinventing Transit: American Communities Finding Smarter, Cleaner, Faster Transportation Solutions. The full report is available here. The report “showcases the new generation of innovative public transit already operating in a variety of communities across America,” from urban (e.g., Orlando) to rural (e.g., California’s San Joaquin Valley). This report argues forcefully that transit projects “offer a powerful tool for economic growth, creating jobs and private sector investments that revitalize nearby communities.” What are the implications for museums as gas prices rise and new (or reborn) forms of transit increasingly supplant the automobile? Will transit projects revitalize museums as well—or disrupt the transportation systems that now bring visitors to their doors?   
  • Two perspectives on the Twitter craze: “Tweeters are motivated by learning and immediacy” (according to a recent survey by MarketingProfs, LLC), yet “Six in 10 Twitter Users Jump Ship Each Month” (according to a recent survey by Nielsen). The links to the survey results include additional links to Twitter-related research. As of April 1, only 5% of adult Americans had Twitter accounts, with some significant variations by age group (according to an online survey by the Harris Poll): “8% of 18-34 year olds use Twitter, 7% of those 35-44 use it, 4% of those aged 45-54 and just 1% of those 55 and older.” All of them can follow CFM at http://twitter.com/futureofmuseums.
  • Comparative data on education in the developed world from the OECD (Organization for Economic Development and Co-operation) is collected in Education Today: The OECD Perspective. Includes a dizzying array of statistics (none directly related to museums, alas) plus policy recommendations. Many of the latter suggest an active role for museums, such as “Develop broad guidelines and curricular standards with the stakeholders for all early childhood education and care services” and “Lifelong learning is a crucial overarching aim of policy and development, including economic development, and calls for additional investment.”    
Other articles, essays, and recent items of interest:
Abstract: This report describes the results of an Institute of Museum and Library Services (IMLS) funded study to investigate the use of technological or policy tools to control patron access to or use of digital collections of cultural materials created by U.S. archives, libraries and museums. The technological and policy tools serve primarily to control copying or other reuses of digital materials. The study had the following goals: 1. Assess what technical and policy tools cultural institutions are employing to control access to and use of online digital collections. 2. Investigate motivations for controlling access to or use of collections (e.g., copyright, privacy, protecting traditional restrictions, income generation etc.). 3. Investigate discouragers to the implementation of access and use control systems (e.g., preference for open collections, lack of resources, institutional mission, etc.). 4. Gauge interest in implementing technical systems to control access to and use of collections. 5. Determine what types of assistance IMLS could provide. 6. Identify institutions with innovative controlled online collections for follow up case studies on policy, technical and managerial details.
  • The spring issue of the International Journal of Arts Management (IJAM) includes an article on how to measure quality in the performing arts from the audience point of view, “The Audience Experience: Measuring Quality in the Performing Arts.” This is also a good introduction to recent research on measuring quality and impact across the entire culture sector (including museums). The article is available (for a small fee) at http://www.gestiondesarts.com/index.php?id=2004. Here is the abstract:
"Traditional measures of quality in the performing arts include critical reviews, awards, attendance data, the reputation of the director, company or lead performers and attributions of success such as festival participation or sponsorship of grants.  However, the recent literature on audience values, quest for authenticity, and the personal experience suggests the need for empirical research into the capacity of the audience experience as an appropriate measure of quality in the performing arts.  The authors use primary research with performing arts audiences to explore the notions of quality, audience risk, and audience experience to redefine the quality-measurement paradigm."
  • Katie Ash, “High-Tech Simulations Linked to Learning,” Education Week (April 8, 2009), full text available with free registration. “Experts say digital games can help students grasp difficult concepts, but warn against seeing them as ‘silver bullet’ solutions.”
  • In his new book, Why Don't Students Like School? (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2009) cognitive scientist Daniel T. Willingham argues that “the brain is not designed for thinking. It’s designed to keep you from having to think, because the brain is actually not very good at thinking.” Nonetheless, the brain likes a good challenge—whether in school or informal educational settings. “People are naturally curious,” he adds, “but curiosity is fragile”:
Even though our brains are not set up for very efficient thinking, people actually enjoy mental activity, at least in some circumstances. They have hobbies like solving crossword puzzles or scrutinizing maps. They watch information-packed documentaries. They pursue careers—such as teaching—that offer greater mental challenge than competing careers, even if the pay is lower. Not only are they willing to think, they intentionally seek out situations that demand thought. Solving problems brings pleasure. When I say “problem solving” here, I mean any cognitive work that succeeds; it might be understanding a difficult passage of prose, planning a garden, or sizing up an investment opportunity. There is a sense of satisfaction, of fulfillment, in successful thinking.
Game theorists (like CFM lecturer Jane McGonigal) have identified a similar sense of satisfaction as one motivation for playing games.
One final point: as the reviewer in the Wall Street Journal notes, Willingham’s book is “an especially withering assault” on the past few decades of education theory, including “the trendy notion that each person has a unique learning style.” To the degree that museum educators have relied on these theories, they need to take Willingham’s critique seriously.
  • Retro Media: Memory (and Memories) Lost—a virtual exhibit from the library at the University of Buffalo, reminding us that rapid changes in how we create and share information have left in their wake “a long list of obsolete technologies, some of which still exist, but for which equipment and storage technologies are not always available.” Some of these technologies—from the punch card to the 8-track player—once defined the outer edge of “the future.” Includes a good bibliography and tips for preserving the information on old media.    
  Refresh and Reflect:

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