Research Roundup
May 13–June 5, 2009


Tools for the future
The near future
Social trends, etc.
Other articles, essays, and recent items of interest
Refresh and reflect



Tools for the future:
  • From British futurist Richard Watson, the latest edition of What’s Next, “a trends report offering clear, concise and non-sensationalist commentary on trends in society, business, science & technology, government and the environment.” Watson’s trend maps are visually striking but conceptually dense.

The near future:
  • The Wall Street Journal explains The Curse of the Class of 2009: “The bad news for this spring's college graduates is that they’re entering the toughest labor market in at least 25 years. The worse news: Even those who land jobs will likely suffer lower wages for a decade or more compared to those lucky enough to graduate in better times, studies show.” 
  • June 1 is the start of hurricane season in the Atlantic and this year the experts predict a higher-than-average number of storms. Visit the National Hurricane Center for an overview and the Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project for more specific predictions about where the big storms are likely to land. Despite the rainy season that is now upon us, many scientists predict that water shortages will become increasingly common around the world as a by-product of climate change. Already, 40% of Fortune 500 companies say that water shortages would present a severe or catastrophic problem for them—but only 17% have made plans for such a scenario. (This report on water as the “new oil in a thirsty global economy” draws upon a 2007 survey conducted by the Marsh Center for Risk Insights. Not much has changed since then.)
  • June is also the start of vacation season, but a recent Harris Poll shows that barely two-thirds of Americans are planning to take a vacation this summer. “Nearly three in ten (29%) adults plan on decreasing the number of leisure trips they make by car; one-third (33%) say they will take fewer plane trips for leisure; another third (34%) will cut the number of weekend trips they take; slightly more than one-third (35%) will reduce the duration of their vacations; and, nearly half (46%) plan to reduce the amount of money they spend on vacation.” Details available here. The good news for museums with strong local support, however, is that half the vacationers plan to stick closer to home—and there are already signs that Americans are starting to spend more on entertainment than they did six months ago. 
  • The Foundation Center offers a 2009 Foundation Giving Forecast  with information provided by the foundations themselves. Many foundations are cutting back on their support of museums and other charitable activities. Meanwhile, recent research shows that “Poor Americans Are Country’s Most Charitable Demographic”: “[P]eople in the bottom 20 percent of the population in terms of wealth tend to give more than their capacity to give, while those in the next two-fifths give at capacity. Americans in the top 40 percent are capable of donating two or three times more than they actually give.”

Social trends, etc.:
“[N]early 600 million Americans in 2109, or just under double our current population.”

“[C]urrent racial categories will be redefined—in particular … the definition of ‘white’ will change” as more Hispanics intermarry and the “Hispanic ethnic barrier” fades.  Indeed, thanks to intermarriage, “while a residual black-white divide may still remain, the U.S. will never technically have a minority-majority population.”
By many objective measures the lives of women in the United States have improved over the past 35 years, yet we show that measures of subjective well-being indicate that women’s happiness has declined both absolutely and relative to men. The paradox of women’s declining relative well-being is found across various datasets, measures of subjective well-being, and is pervasive across demographic groups and industrialized countries. Relative declines in female happiness have eroded a gender gap in happiness in which women in the 1970s typically reported higher subjective well-being than did men. These declines have continued and a new gender gap is emerging—one with higher subjective well-being for men.

Also see columnist Ross Douhat’s reaction in the New York Times.
  • On the 30th anniversary of the Sony Walkman, English critic A.N.Wilson laments the ill effects of solipsistic media devices on eardrums and social cohesion.  (He calls it “the gadget that helped break Britain.”)
  • Want to know what’s happening in America’s schools? Download The Condition of Education 2009, the latest edition of an annual compilation of statistics from the U.S. Department of Education. Then check out the latest results from the MetLife Survey of the American Teacher, which has been trying to answer that question with annual soundings of teachers and students since 1984. The May 2009 Trends& Tudes newsletter from Harris Interactive (which conducts the survey) includes an overview of trends from the past 25 years. The big picture is surprisingly optimistic: “The state of the teaching profession has improved, as well as school quality and student achievement.” According to the teachers, poverty was less of a barrier to student achievement in 2008 than it was in1992, but the “lack of support or help from parents” (cited by 65%) is a bigger barrier than ever. On the student side, 7th–12th graders appear to trust their teachers more today than they did in 2000, even if they think the teachers are somewhat out of touch: the students in the 2008 survey rated “their teachers’ ability to teach about computers and the Internet … among the lowest of any subject or skill category.”
  • Psychologists at the University of Georgia and San Diego State University report that the growing preference for unique baby names may be contributing to a “narcissism epidemic.” According to study co-author W. Keith Campbell, “Unique names may have some benefits such as creating a more individual identity, but they run the risk of promoting separateness, which is linked to narcissism.” Read more about their research here or buy the book, The Narcissism Epidemic: Living in the Age of Entitlement  (Free Press, 2009).
  • The June 4 edition of Edge (an online journal devoted to “The Third Culture”) examines the “The Impending Demise of the University.” According to business tech guru Don Tapscott, “there is a widening gap between the model of learning offered by many big universities and the natural way that young people who have grown up digital best learn. … Changing the model of pedagogy for this generation is crucial for the survival of the university. If students turn away from a traditional university education, this will erode the value of the credentials universities award, their position as centers of learning and research, and as campuses where young people get a change to ‘grow up.’” (Could the same be said for museums?) Kimerly Rorschach’s reflection on the role of university museums is a good companion (if not exactly a counter-argument) to Tapscott’s essay. Rorschach is director of the Nasher Museum at Duke University.

Other articles, essays, and recent items of interest:
  • Elina Lampi and Matilda Orth, “Who Visits the Museums? A Comparison Between Stated Preferences and Observed Effects of Entrance Fees,” Kyklos 62:1 (February 2009), pp. 85-102. The abstract is free here, but you have to subscribe to the journal to read the full text.
Abstract:  The issue of free entrance is debated in many countries. We investigate changes in visitor composition associated with an introduction of an entrance fee to a state funded museum, and the validity of the Contingent Valuation (CV) method. We conducted two surveys to collect information about the visitors’ socio-economic backgrounds, one before and one after the fee was in effect. While entrance was still free, we also asked visitors about their willingness to pay for a visit, using the CV method. We then compare the results of the CV survey with the actual change in visitor composition caused by the fee. We thus have a unique opportunity to test the validity of the CV, which, as far as we know, has never been done in a similar way before. The results of the CV indicate that several target group visitors are less likely to visit the museum after an implementation of a relatively low fee. Consequently, charging for entrance does affect who visits the museum. The validity test of the CV method shows that a majority of the changes in visitor composition were correctly predicted. We conclude that the CV method is particularly successful when applied on goods familiar to the respondents.  
  • The latest issue of e-conservation magazine  includes a discussion of the “Securing the Future: Indigenous Cultural Maintenance Symposium,” held in Melbourne in February 2009. The key issue: does the participation of indigenous peoples in the larger cultural sector contribute to the well-being of their communities as a whole?

Refresh and Reflect:
  • According to cutting-edge research sponsored by cosmetics retailer TotalBeauty.com, Santa Barbara, California is the best U.S. city for hair and Corpus Christi, Texas is the worst. Other cities on the “bad hair day” list include Phoenix, Fresno, and Eugene, Oregon.
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